The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect
by Judea Pearl (2018)
Year Read: 2024 Status: Currently Reading

A deep dive into the revolution in causal inference and how it's changing the way we understand the world and AI.

2 min read

Currently Reading

I am currently working through Judea Pearl’s masterpiece on causal inference. As a statistician, this is fundamental reading that challenges many of the traditional “correlation is not causation” dogmas we were taught.

Initial Thoughts

The Ladder of Causation

Pearl introduces three levels of cognitive capability regarding cause and effect:

  1. Association (Seeing): What if I see X?
  2. Intervention (Doing): What if I do X?
  3. Counterfactuals (Imagining): What if I had done X?

It’s fascinating to see how most modern AI is still stuck on the first rung, while humans navigate the third rung naturally.

The Role of Models

The book argues that data alone is never enough for causal inference; we need a mental or mathematical model of the process that generated the data.

Why I’m Reading This

I want to bridge the gap between predictive ML models and causal understanding, especially for decision-making systems.

More comprehensive notes will be added once I finish the book!